Colonization Never Ends

Hawai‘i Island is confronting a housing crisis so deep that it is unsustainable for the people for whom it is home.

The $800,000 Wall

Hawai‘i County’s housing market is a proving ground for inequality. A single-family home priced at $800,000—the median—requires a $160,000 down payment and monthly mortgage payments near $4,488. To afford this under standard lending rules, a household must earn between $190,000 and $260,000 a year.¹

Compare that to the island’s median household income: $80,000.² The gap is wide—and growing.

So, Who’s Buying?

Increasingly, it’s not local families. Nearly 25–30% of homes in Hawai‘i County are sold to non-residents—including retirees, tech workers, foreign nationals, and institutional investors.³ In the condominium market, more than 50% of sales go to out-of-state buyers.⁴

These buyers are typically cash-rich: wealthy retirees, investors, and money launderers. Many acquire property through corporate LLCs. For them, Hawai‘i is not home—it’s a holding.

The Market Shift from Short-Term to Mid-Term Rentals

The once-booming vacation rental market is faltering. In late 2024, statewide bookings dropped by 38% compared to 2019.⁵ Rising costs, new regulations, and a shift toward hotels have led many investors to pivot to mid-term rentals, which are less regulated and cater to professionals and remote workers.⁶

The Rental Squeeze

For the average renter, this shift offers no relief. Rents in Hawai‘i County have surged 20–30% since 2020. Median rates now range from $1,800 to $2,200/month.⁷

Yet for the lowest-income renters, the situation is worse:

• Only 37 affordable and available rental units exist for every 100 extremely low-income renter households statewide.
• The total statewide shortage of such units is 25,631.⁸

Hawai‘i County’s Housing Demand

According to the state’s most recent planning study, Hawai‘i County needs 10,796 new housing units by 2025, of which 60% or more must be affordable—translating to between 6,500 and 10,000 units for low- and moderate-income households.⁹

Meanwhile, just ~5,000 affordable units are currently in development statewide, with only a fraction earmarked for Hawai‘i Island.¹⁰

Kona: A Case Study in Displacement

In Kailua-Kona, home values hover near $800,000. Although the market has cooled—homes now sit longer unsold—the price remains far out of reach for locals.¹¹ Out-of-state buyers and investors continue to dominate the market, pricing out working families and Native Hawaiian communities.

The result: displacement, overcrowding, intergenerational rent-sharing, and an exodus of young families seeking opportunity elsewhere.

Government Response: Too Little, Too Slow

State legislators have authorized zoning reforms and fast-tracked housing permits. Programs aim to convert commercial and resort properties into residential use. And while these are welcome steps, the pace remains insufficient.¹²

A 2023 state projection found Hawai‘i will need 64,693 new housing units by 2027 to meet demand.¹³ If current production trends hold, that target clearly won’t be met.

A Crisis Not of Priorities

There is land. There is labor. There is capital. What’s missing is political will—and the prioritization of people over profit.

Hawai‘i’s housing crisis isn’t just about numbers. It’s about belonging. It’s about ensuring the people who care for the land and perpetuate its culture can remain rooted to it.

If Hawai‘i is truly to be a place of aloha, its housing system must change—not tomorrow, but today.

THE NUMBERS

Category	Hawai‘i County / Statewide
Median Home Price	$800,000+
Monthly Mortgage (w/ 20% down)	~$4,488
Income Needed to Purchase	$190,000–$260,000
Median Household Income	~$80,000
Housing Units Needed (Hawai‘i Co.)	10,796 by 2025
Affordable Units Needed (Est.)	6,500–10,000
Units Currently in Development	~5,000 (statewide)
Shortage for ELI Households	25,631 units (statewide)
Affordable Units per 100 ELI HHs	37 available per 100

Footnotes

1. Bankrate, “Income Needed for an $800,000 Home,” Bankrate.com, 2024.
2. U.S. Census Bureau, “QuickFacts: Hawai‘i County, Hawaii,” 2023.
3. University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization (UHERO), Hawai‘i Housing Factbook 2024.
4. Ibid.
5. Michelle DePacina, “Hawai‘i Vacation Rental Demand Drops Dramatically,” SFGate, Nov. 27, 2024.
6. “Midterm Rentals in Hawai‘i,” Steadily Insurance Blog, 2024.
7. Hawai‘i Housing Factbook 2024, UHERO.
8. National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC), “The Gap: A Shortage of Affordable Homes – Hawai‘i,” 2024.
9. State of Hawai‘i, Hawai‘i Housing Planning Study, Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT), 2019.
10. Marcel Honore, “Is Hawai‘i’s Historic Investment in Affordable Housing Paying Off?” Honolulu Civil Beat, Jan. 2025.
11. Redfin, “Kailua-Kona Housing Market Report,” 2025.
12. Associated Press, “Hawai‘i Governor Signs Housing Legislation to Help Locals Stay,” May 2025.
13. DBEDT, “Statewide Housing Demand 2020–2027,” Hawai‘i Housing Planning Study, 2023.